HOPING WE'LL STILL HAVE ELECTIONS!
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Your source for upcoming US election forecasts, candidate profiles, and in-depth political analysis.
Updated Aug. 15, 2025
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Fresh intel from the front lines.
Op-Ed: Newsom talks tough but taps out on California’s independence
August 10, 2025
Gavin Newsom promised to fight fire with fire. Texas Republicans are carving up their state to crush Democrats, and Newsom made it sound like California would punch back just as hard. But when the moment came, he folded like Chuck Schumer in a budget standoff.
Democrats' early +5 shakes GOP from House to Governors
The 2026 midterms are still 15 months away, but the latest CNBC poll just gave Democrats a reason to feel bullish: a +5 lead on the generic congressional ballot. In a political environment where Republicans control the House by a razor-thin margin, that’s not just encouraging — it’s a flashing red warning for the GOP across every battleground in 2026.
AOC’s radio silence vs. the Newsom-Buttigieg shadow primary
For months, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been conspicuously quiet, no major speeches, no viral committee takedowns, no national TV barnburners. Meanwhile, Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg are working overtime on the national stage, hopping battleground states, feeding cable hits, and subtly road-testing stump lines.
Kamala’s back...and spilling the 2024 tea
After months off the grid, Vice President Kamala Harris has reemerged with a full-throttle media blitz built around her new memoir, a behind-the-scenes look at the 2024 presidential election. The rollout isn’t just about book sales; it’s an image reset, offering her version of campaign history while reminding Democrats she’s still a national player.
🗳️ race outlook
Tracking the matchups that will shape the balance of power.
House in the Balance
Where control of the lower chamber hinges on redistricting and razor-thin margins.
The battle for the House is shaping up as a fight decided long before voters head to the polls. A handful of districts could determine which party controls the lower chamber, and the agenda in Washington, for years to come. The fight for the gavel is already underway, and every race carries outsized stakes for the next two years of American politics.
The Senate Showdown
Every seat counts in a chamber where a single defection could tip the power.
The 2026 Senate map is tighter than a drum; each race carries outsized influence. From Roy Cooper’s entry in North Carolina to looming GOP primary drama in Texas, both parties are testing their ground in key states. Fulton County insiders say the 120th Congress could be decided before most Americans have heard of their candidates.
Governors with clout
Governors control the maps, the message, and the momentum.
Democrats currently hold 23 governorships while Republicans control 27, but look under the surface and these races are another strategic front. Governors in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are not just potential swing picks, they’re the architects of future district lines and can shape turnout laws before the midterms start.
Dem primary wide-open
Potential presidential contenders are already testing the waters in early states, two years out.
No front-runner has stepped into the ring yet, but the map’s already in motion. Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are quietly doing the retail politics tour, laying infrastructure in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina before anyone’s even entered the race.
GOP reset in progress
With Trump fading, Republicans hunt for a coalition-keeper.
The 2028 Republican primary isn’t a replay; it’s a total reconstruction. With Donald Trump’s appeal waning in the party’s core, emerging figures are testing their ground. Can someone else forge that rare combination of populist fire, emotional resonance, and operational muscle? Right now, the GOP is quietly asking: who’s next?
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